Clinton and Kerry and that other guy...

June 22, 2004

I just want to state for the record that Clinton's book will not harm Kerry's election chances. Honestly, there's a lot of time left until the election, not to mention two conventions, a few debates (hopefully) and who knows what else.

What will harm Kerry's chances are a Nader candidacy however. Hopefully the 6% or so who are currently thinking of voting for Nader will change their minds. I saw this today in a chat with Richard Morin & Claudia Deane of the Washigton Post about the newest Post-ABC News poll numbers:

Detroit, Mich.: The Washington Post-ABC poll depicted Kerry with 48 percent, Bush with 46 percent, and Nader with 6 percent of the vote from registered voters sampled. Is Nader taking votes away from Kerry or Bush? A few months ago Bush had the edge, are true conservatives leaving the Bush camp and supporting Nader or choosing not to vote in this election? What kind of effect does this type of poll play into the politics of the upcoming election?

Richard Morin & Claudia Deane: One more time, we're going to answer this question. And Ralph, are you paying attention?

All the evidence we've seen points to this single fact: Nader takes votes away from Kerry. In the current poll, the "horserace" with Bush, Kerry and Nader in the race, Kerry leads Bush by 4 points among registered voters. But if the choice is just between Bush and Kerry, the Democrat's advantage grows to 8 points.
End of story.

You can see the whole discussion here.